There may of course be more of a benefit tourism problem but that is a different issue

There may, of course, be more of a “benefit tourism” problem, but that is a different issue. The NIESR might well be right about the flows over a 10-year period ­ indeed I think it will be ­ but we may get rather a lot of people in the first few months But is that bad? Surely not. Nor has there been much movement in Romania, which hopes to join shortly. True, there has been a big exodus in Estonia and Latvia, but the absolute numbers are small and in any case most emigration has been to Russia.

I would suppose this is Russian-speaking people moving “home”.At any rate, the National Institute has just published a paper on enlargement that estimates that over the next decade only 350,000 people are expected to migrate to the existing EU members and that only a small proportion will come to the UK.Could there be a surprise here? It is certainly possible that the combination of a very strong job market in the UK relative to the rest of the EU, coupled with the exclusion from jobs elsewhere, could mean that the flows suggested here might be “front-end loaded” to Britain. The Czech Republic and Hungary have a little over 10 million people apiece but after that you are down to a few million. And of course all history suggests that most people tend to stay near to home.So the question as to whether there will be a huge number of new potential workers is answered by the fact that the numbers of people who are likely to want to move country are not that big in relation to the present UK workforce ­ unless much larger numbers of people want to cross borders than has previously been thought.That looks unlikely. As you can see, there was really very little population movement in the three existing members or in the larger new ones, Poland and the Czech Republic. The second graph looks at what happened in the run up to accession in three existing members ­ Spain, Portugal and Greece ­ and compares it with what we know about the propensity to up sticks in five new members and one probable new member.

This may be important in political terms but it is hard to see it becoming a major economic issue.The first thing to remember here is that half the population of the accession countries lives in Poland (see first graph) That apart, the new member states are small. Is this good or bad news for our economy ­ or does it not make a lot of difference either way?
Economic integration often throws up surprises. Germany has been surprised that unification has subtracted from its economic performance rather than added to it. Nafta, on the other hand, is generally recognised as being at least as successful as was expected, arguably more so.We are now only 10 weeks from the entry of another 10 countries into the EU so it is fair to ask whether there might be some surprises in store here, starting with the issue of the potential for migration.This is causing huge political angst at the moment, for it seems we are stepping back from the previous position that Britain would, if necessary alone among existing EU members, grant free entry to workers from the accession countries. So it seems the Government is going to try to restrict the ability of workers from the new EU member states to come here after all. Average mortgages rose 12 per cent while other lending increased by 9 per cent.But the bank said low interest rates put a squeeze on income from deposits, reducing the profits contribution of its retail banking division.RBS Insurance, which includes Direct Line and Churchill Insurance, increased its profits contribution by 32 per cent to £468 million, with the number of policyholders in the UK rising to 19.3 million.Churchill was bought in September as one of eight acquisitions made during the year and Mr Goodwin said the “radar remained turned on” to further purchases.Economic recovery in its three major markets in the UK, US and Europe would enable the group to “maintain superior growth” in 2004, he added..

Royal Bank of Scotland today posted record annual profits as cost savings from its acquisition of NatWest exceeded hopes. The source said that the second highest bid was tabled by Hg Capital.. The broker has a highly regarded team of media analysts led by Lorna Tilbian. One industry source said that even if Numis had not bid for Centaur, Incisive would not have won. This is all just scuttlebutt.” In the media sector, Numis clients include The Wireless Group, a radio operator. Earlier this month, Mr Hemsley said: “I am building a business and quite evidently I must have trodden on some toes These people don’t want to work hard themselves. Competitors have taken the opportunity to try to poach some of its clients.