Now there are few barriers to prevent investment and jobs flowing towards the east of the EU
Now there are few barriers to prevent investment and jobs flowing towards the east of the EU. Eventually that will lead to much more competitive and profitable firms domiciled in the west, with them even now looking to up dividends and promote shareholder value. It can see Britain and the US prospering, it can see eastern Europe growing rapidly, and it will want a bit of the action.Nothing, not the French social model, nor even the euro itself will be able to withstand the pressure to end low growth and high unemployment. It’s not just the usual stuff about the challenge of China, India, Brazil and the other emerging markets. We can pretty much take that as read, although the pace an d pattern of those threats will be harder to predict.The point is that even the old Soviet bloc eventually had to give up the fight against market capitalism, just as the Vietnamese and Libyans are doing now; and, one day, so will the Cubans, the Zimbabweans, the North Koreans and any other benighted nation unlucky enough to live under some variant or other of state control.Of course, that is a caricature of where the European Union stands, and that should be why the EU will be that much more susceptible to the pressure for reform that economic failure inevitably brings in its wake.
That is because European nations have the great advantage of having democratic institutions and, as we saw last week, there is no escaping the verdict of the voters. For in the long term, Europe ought to be a winner, although some of its economies are in pretty poor shape.About a decade ago, I became a regular investor in Foreign and Colonial’s Eurotrust and built up quite a holding. Then, a few years ago, when things seemed to be turning sour, I stopped my subscription and have watched the shares droop from a high of 700p to about half that.Recently, though, they have begun to recover, approaching £5 again, which is the break-even point for me. It’s a broadly based fund, centred on western Europe, and while I wish it had a better exposure to the eastern end of the continent, I might just be prepared to put a few shares away each month again.The reason is that I don’t see how the EU can protect itself from those huge global trends that are doing so much to transform the world economy. At least the French “non” and the Dutch “nee” were a refreshing change from the usual wearily familiar pattern of Britain being the only nation, with the exception of Denmark, that ever cuts up rough.
This time, though, I don’t hear the usual suspects going on about how France or the Netherlands are now “isolated in Europe”, even though that is what they usually say about Britain when it finds itself in similar circumstances I remain an optimistic investor in Europe. Should be ready for general consumption by April 2007.That’s what Northern’s turnaround programme, “Get Fit”, comprises.
The City, though, isn’t betting O’Driscoll can stay head chef unless she manages to get the company through at least one Christmas without a profit warning.She failed this year. The company’s chilled division fared the worst, mainly because it caught a cold from Marks & Spencer, its single biggest customer.With its 6 per cent yield potentially under threat, the shares are not ready to put on the menu yet.s.foley independent.co.uk. It’s enough to restore your faith in democracy. In the absence of substantial sales growth, this should help you improve operating margins Don’t check progress too often – you might be disappointed.
